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Wednesday 4 May 2016

Political Wednesday: Post-Trump-Win Wrap-up Analysis

So Trump has got the nomination in the bag. Cruz has quit the campaign; the entire U.S. Senate is in mourning because he will be coming back to them.

Nothing short of the most egregious cheating on the part of his opponents could prevent him becoming the GOP candidate for the 2016 election. I don't know what your Twitter is like, but mine is full of conservatives of all stripes, and it went INSANE last night.

You have the Trump Triumphalists taunting everyone who said it'd never happen. You had a ton of the "anyone but Trump" group (an eclectic mix of Fundamentalist Theocons, Neocons, highly zealous Libertarians, and the few fans of the Establishment GOP machine) declaring that they were going to sit out the election, vote Libertarian, or a few even saying they'd vote for Hillary. Some were calling on this or that Republican to run as a third-party candidate against Trump. A few were presenting fantasy scenarios where somehow Kasich could take the nomination.

The thing I found amazing, from both the Trump-hating Right and of course the Left and the mainstream media, is just how enormously people continue to misunderstand Trump, his movement, what his people are about, and what he is capable of doing (both in terms of winning elections, and in terms of his effect on American Democracy).

Many pundits, including very smart ones (like my friend Brian Garst, who I had a Twitter Debate with last night), still imagine that there's no chance of a Trump Presidency happening.

But the thing is, it very much could happen.  Outside of the hardcore Democrat Establishment, people hate Hillary. Even many of the true "progressives" who adore Bernie Sanders hate her. Yes, a lot of people hate Trump too, but I think Trump has a lot more room to maneuver to change their minds.

And Trump's power to subvert and manipulate media at all levels is really stunning. He hasn't really even started to go at Hillary. And if he nudges his unfavorables down a bit, he can become President if he wins over just a part of the white centrists, some of the working-class Democrats who feel betrayed by their party, and even a sliver of the 'ethnic vote' (which is not nearly as hard as the mainstream media has made it look: Trump consistently won the Latino vote in the GOP primaries; a lot of legal Latinos who actually vote like him because they know he's not wrong about some of the massive problems illegal immigration brings, usually to THEIR communities).

People think that the media will favor Hillary and tear Trump apart; and of course most mainstream media people like Hillary way more than Trump!  But the facts are that Trump doesn't try to win over reporters, he tries to make news. He's gaming the system. He knows how to FORCE the corporate news media to talk about him, and he doesn't play by the leftist reporters' rules.  They have already thrown everything they could at him (because the mainstream right-wing Media didn't want him either), and none of it stuck.  CNN won't win where Fox News failed.  He knows how to manipulate corporate media and social media alike to get what he wants.
Trump isn't stuck with the media. The media is stuck with him.

And of course, Trump's opponents still dismissing him, even now, as a "buffoon" is part of how he wins. Hell, I understand that instinct. I did it too at first. I couldn't believe anyone would take him seriously. But everyone assuming he's not smart is one of the greatest weapons he has.  While the elites on the right and left laugh at his 4th-grade level speeches and declarations about "loving the poorly-educated voters", that's how he wins.  Hillary, who is supremely arrogant, convinced of her own destiny, and totally out of touch with almost everything, is bound to make the same mistake.

She's not the only delusional one, though.  Hillary is not doing well even in her own party. She's having a really hard time beating a 74-year old Socialist who is about half as good at social media as Trump is (which, I'll note, is STILL really good, and about twenty times as good as Hillary).  Spiteful declarations that somehow Hillary will inevitably wipe the floor with Trump are at the least extremely premature.

Then there's the people worried about how this will all change the GOP, or America itself. I'll be talking more about that in another blog entry in a couple of days.


Currently Smoking: Lorenzetti Oversize + H&H's Beverwyck


  1. Hey if Trump wins it might convince the republicans to ditch the religious right and main stream. One can only hope.

    1. He's the only Republican in decades that I would actually vote, precisely because he isn't constantly taking about shoving a wacky religion on me.

  2. It seems Socialist has a different meaning on your side of the Atlantic.
    Most Socialists I know hope Trump will win, in the hope the big orange ape will prove lethal for America's influence abroad.

    1. You guys have been so indoctrinated into believing the people are at the service of the state, and not the reverse, it's no wonder.

    2. Err... Where the hell does that cliché come from ?

  3. I'm still surprised how many people are totally ok with being associated with the neo-fascist ideology Trump is using. I mean, didn't they fought a war AGAINST fascism? I find it funny how in this election two of the stongest candidates have their candidacies built around the biggest two historical enemies of the USA, fascism and socialism.

    1. Follow the money trail. Trump is the only one with no lobbyists and thus have no one to control him. Every other candidate is bought out. The news media bought out Hillary so they do their damnest to ensure she wins. They ignore Bernie who people want. They spread lies about Trump who people want.

      If any thing the real fascists are in Europe having a field day as the socialist governments over there defend them. Yet the guy who spoken with boarder patrols is being called a fascist. For what? Trying to protect his nation? Come on get real.

    2. Trump isn't really a fascist. He's a Jacksonian Democrat. Even if you wanted to be really critical, you could say he's closer to Hugo Chavez than to Adolf Hitler.

    3. Both populists. A better comparison though, would be to Benito Mussolini, but without the socialist background. And also, what do you expect from the socialist governments in Europe? The far-right wing is gaining power with democratic means! They can't win either way. If they let the democratic process continue, apparently they are "defending" the fascists, if they block them, they are robbing the people of their choice. They are screwed either way.

    4. I am talking about Islamists that not only want to spread the religion, but make it into law where everyone must obey even if you don't follow the religion. We are talking about killing gays and atheists alike on the spot if they are discovered. Forcing women to become second class citizens and that is if they are lucky.

      That is bad enough and when these people commit crimes. It is worst when the government orders the police to let the Islamists get away with it because if the police did their job the precious narrative would be harmed. This forces the people who have every right to be angry to do desperate things. Mainly to support parties who are fascists, but want to get rid of the Islamists.

      It is getting ugly for Europe. The eastern half of it is building walls. The western is tearing itself apart as its welfare programs are being suck dry by a parasitic mass of young fighting age men. All the while Russia gets stronger and more respected each passing day. Mind you it is suspected that it was Russia that caused the migrant crisis to disablized the west.

      All around a ugly mess that anyone can see if they bother to look. Only Trump bothered to mention it and say something about it. The American people are not stupid. They know Europe is in trouble and don't want that mess here. Hell homeland security is watching Canada as we speak.

      Now before any one calls me racist I didn't say muslim. I said Islamists. In other words I am talking about radicals that want to replace western values with their laws and force everyone to obey it. So no I not attacking muslims.

    5. The problem in Europe isn't really with the Socialists, it's with the Conservatives. They failed consistently to provide a viable democratic counter to the Socialists for the past 25 years (pretty much since the end of the Thatcher era), and this means that there was no effective place for anyone who was suffering from socialist policy (which includes an ever-growing number of people).

      The reason people vote for UKIP is because the Tories have betrayed everything they stand for. The reason people vote for Le Pen in France is because there's no more-democratic party to support that would actually change anything.

      People are are mostly voting for the most democratic party possible that will actually do a damn thing.

  4. I don't see Sanders as a Socialist in any real sense. He seems to be a New Dealer, it's not like he's talking about nationalizing anything or removing private industry. He's not far enough left to look like a socialist to me. I'm pretty comfortable in the center.

    Trump is what he is, a symptom of a fundamentally non-functioning system. I don't think Clinton and Obama's brand of "center left" is any better than Trump's nationalistic "center right," I happen to loathe both presumptive nominees.

    I don't know how I feel about folks outside the US being so invested in this race, either. It feels like people dancing on my country's grave.

    1. Well, for me, US Elections have always been a spectator sport, like watching the World Cup. This one is the most interesting in ages, maybe in my entire adult life.

      As for Sanders, he calls himself a socialist, albeit a 'democratic' one.

    2. I thought my team had a chance this season, but they are getting pounded.

  5. So many miss the point. The slogan "Make America Great Again" resonates because there is a huge, silent majority of Americans who are sick and tired of being told we "can't" do this or "shouldn't" do that, or that it's "too hard" to do the other.

    America built the Hoover Dam. Americans fought alongside our allies and defeated the largest military force in history. America sent men to the Moon. Americans did so, SO many things. And to now be led by people who say we can't, shouldn't, couldn't... Trump calls us to a higher purpose, not only for our country, but ourselves.

    Obama's empty slogan of "Yes, we can!" finds meaning when paired with "Make America Great Again!" Anyone who loses sight of that will be bewildered come November.